Intel’s co-founder, Gordon E. Moore, shared a statement with us a long time ago that has become known as Moore’s Law.
Since the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958, the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has increased exponentially, doubling approximately every two years.
Around the world the category of notebooks we have come to know as netbooks are providing users with low end requirements with a route to enjoy the benefits that computing brings. Essentially these netbooks are providing consumers with a low cost, low functionality notebook. The price point has driven revolutions in some markets, the number of education departments around the world looking at issuing laptops to their K12 students today is a good example of that.
Michael Horowitz talks about what a netbook actually is in a blog entry from last October.
A Netbook is a new type of laptop computer, defined by size, price, horsepower, and operating system. They are small, cheap, under-powered, and run either an old or unfamiliar operating system.
Moore’s Law is already hard at work on the netbook. The Lenovo S10 that I picked up on my way through Singapore two weeks ago is more than capable of running Windows 7 along with many of my usual tools, Michael’s accurate observations from last October are already becoming out of date.
People choose netbooks today for a variety of different reasons. For schools they are cheap, for professionals they are lightweight, for others they’re just a fun toy. Whatever the reason for choosing one there will be compromise in their purchasing decision – reduced battery life, lower processing capacity, less storage or less available RAM.
The dramatic evolution of these devices over the last six months, combined with the three decades of lessons that Moore’s Law has taught us gives us a clear picture of the future.
Six months ago you might have had to make a choice that would involve “an old or unfamiliar operating system”, soon you will be able to choose Windows 7 on a netbook size device. Netbooks are also already shipping with 160Gb hard drives rather than the 10Gb or 20Gb of SSD that we saw in early devices.
Some of the remaining decision driving criteria such as lower capacity processing, reduced battery life or minimal graphics ability will disappear just as quickly.
Two years from now you won’t be deciding between a netbook or a notebook, you will just be deciding what size of device you want based upon where and how you want to use it. The netbook category will have all but disappeared.